Kansas City @ SEATTLE
Kansas City +111 over SEATTLE

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Posted at 10:45 AM EST

Brad Keller (RHP - KC) has been a hit-strand-homer (HR/f) beneficiary in logging a 2.05 ERA through 22 June innings. He also draws Seattle at T-Mobile Park where they've been a less dangerous group. Keller sports a 4.78 xERA heading into this turn but we don’t care, as this wager is all about fading Seattle’s starter. Seattle also is cleaning house slowly but surely, which plays on team mindset.

Marco Gonzales (LHP - SEA) draws a midrange rating for his home start against Kansas City. The Royals have been awful recently (.616 OPS in June, .576 since June 8), but Gonzales heads into this start having allowed 21 runs over his last three home turns. The Seattle southpaw has carded a 6.75 ERA/6.17 xERA over his last 3 games and isn’t in good form. Dwindling swing & miss and groundball rates with more contact of the barreled-up variety yielded, have made this stiff one of the better fades in the AL when he’s favored.

Back to the K.C. lineup for a sec and its weak OPS over the past month or so. It’s also a lot of bad luck, as the Royals make frequent contact and also lead the majors in steals with 70. A correction to the good is forthcoming in their OPS.

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Our Pick

Kansas City +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110