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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

3:40 PM EST. Frankly, it doesn’t matter who is pitching for the Padres but Matt Strahm (LHP - SD) is our guy today and we’re more than fine with that. Strahm was activated from the 10-day injured list to start Thursday, June 13, against the Rockies at Coors Field. After tossing just 76 innings as a reliever between San Diego and the minors last year, Strahm has already made 12 starts (64 IP, 4.03/4.17 ERA/xERA) in 2019. He’s been pretty steady, allowing more than three runs just twice all year, in his very first and last start before landing on the IL. Dude has a nice BB/K split of 15/60 in 64 innings. If the Crew score 10 runs and beat us badly, it is what it is but this is a true value play.   

It is seriously ridiculous that Zach Davies (RHP - MIL) has posted a 2.60 ERA after 15 starts because he has the skills of a career minor leaguer that could never make it to the majors. We have seen extreme luck before but this guy is defying logic in a big way and we promise you it cannot last. It has already started falling apart but not enough for the market to notice, thus Davies is once again a false favorite.

Davies has an extremely weak BB/K split of 22/50 in 80 innings. His batted ball profile of 42% grounders, 24% line-drives and 35% fly-balls is also weak. He has a swing & miss rate of 8% with a weak first-pitch strike rate of 54%. Over his last five starts, his swing & miss rate is 7% and his first-pitch strike rate is 48%.

Everything in Davies’ profile is weak. Zach Davies is currently among the ERA leaders among starters but his skills tell a completely different story, as he's throwing more balls (you know, ball 1, ball 2) than ever, and whiffing fewer than usual. The fact he's basically reduced his repertoire to two pitches, highlighted by a sinker that is bottom-five in the league in terms of velocity makes his success this year even more mind-boggling. Davies does not have one redeeming skill and the fact that he’s favored in San Diego is further proof how the market values ERA’s and results more than actual skills. Davies is a two-pitch pitcher that throws 87 MPH.

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