Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:30 PM EST.
6:10 PM EST. The Pirates snapped a seven-game losing streak last night by doing what they’ve been doing for weeks, which is knocking the cover off the baseball. In Miami last night, the Pirates belted out another 18 hits en route to a 11-0 win. Despite going 1-7 over their past eight games, Pittsburgh is second in runs scored over that and also third in team OPS. Meanwhile, Miami’s cleanup hitter has an OPS of .545. That’s a demotion OPS. We’ve said it all year that the Pirates have one of the best hitting lineups in baseball while the Marlins rank dead last offensively in everything.
The Marlins are favored here because Pablo Lopez’ (RHP - MIA) stock is high and because Pittsburgh has a rookie starter going making his major league debut. At Marlins Park, Pablo Lopez has given up just two runs over his last 25 innings. That’s nice but the Pirates are seeing beach balls and Lopez has seen his ground balls dry up a bit of late. It does not take long for MLB hitters to figure out guys. Let’s not forget that Lopez was plying his trade at Double-A this time a year ago. He completely skipped Triple-A and while he has a decent array of skills, he still pitches for a team that claws for every run they get.
Dario Agrazal (RHP - PIT) has pitched very well in Triple-A this year. He has made eight starts at the level and has given up two runs or less in six of those eight starts. Also, Agrazal has continued to do what he does best, inducing groundball outs. This year in Triple-A Indianapolis, Agrazal has a strong 54% groundball rate over 49 innings. Over that same span he has an oppBAA against of .216 with 39 K’s and 10 walks. He has also allowed just four jacks over those 49 frames. Agrazal has really had a lengthy, but solid minor league career. Through his years in the Bucs system, he owns an ERA of 3.45 ERA in 594 total innings. While he only has 378 strikeouts, he has only allowed 86 free passes. Agrazal is a groundball pitcher that is not going to blow anyone away with a fastball that sits in the low 90s, but he has had success inducing weak contact. He’s a well-built righty with a hard sinker. Groundball pitchers with hard sinkers who don’t strike a ton of guys out sometimes work out surprisingly well. In any event, there is nothing but profits waiting for those with the patience to keep backing the Pirates when they’re taking back prices. This is a very good team that is underpriced daily.
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Pittsburgh +113 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)