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SAN FRANCISCO -101 over Milwaukee

Best Lines: Pinnacle -101 BET365 -115 SportsInteraction -115 5DIMES -112 888Sport -115

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

4:05 PM EST. Jimmy Nelson (RHP - MIL) struggled with his control in his Triple-A stint, issuing 12 walks in 24 innings. He returned to the Milwaukee rotation for the first time since Tommy John surgery ended his breakout 2017 season. Nelson experienced multiple setbacks during his recovery as he missed the 2018 season. He is the rotation replacement for RHP Jhoulys Chacin, recently placed on the IL with a lower back strain. In his first start back, he was torched by the Marlins, giving up five runs in three innings while walking three batters and striking out two. One of those K’s was against Miami’s starting pitcher, Sandy Alcantara. Jimmy Nelson is a weak road favorite and a big risk.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP - SF) heads into this tilt against the Brewers off a nice start against the Dodgers (7 IP - 4 hits - 1 run). The Brewers do hit LHPs well but with a larger chunk of LHB plate appearances than most teams, that plays into a big Bumgarner platoon advantage. The veteran Giants hurler has held current Milwaukee bats to a .673 OPS while registering a 2.73 xERA. He also owns a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts with three of those coming against teams that rank among MLB's top-10 in OPS. Wrong side favored.

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Our Pick

SAN FRANCISCO -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)