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Cleveland @ DETROIT
DETROIT +146 over Cleveland

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +146 BET365 +140 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +140 888Sport +140

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. We understand that Ryan Carpenter (RHP - DET) is pure rat shit with a 7.89/5.44 ERA/xERA split but we’re after value and in that regard, Adam Plutko (RHP - CLE) cannot be priced in this range on his very best day because he’s one of the worst starters in the business.

Adam Plutko comes in with a 5.19 ERA but also comes in with a ridiculous .208 BABIP when the league average is .302. That is the lowest BABIP among all 30 starters today. Imagine what Plutko’s ERA would be if his BABIP was normal. It gets even worse. Plutko’s strand rate is 86% when the league average is 75% so that, too, is better than league average. To recap, Adam Plutko has a very low and lucky Batting Average on Balls in Play of .208 to go along with a high and also very lucky .86% strand rate yet he carries a horrible 5.19 ERA into this one after three starts. The sample size is small but he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher (26% grounders) that was tagged for a whopping 2.5 HR’s per nine last year and it’s even worse this year at 3.2 per nine. Yeah, Adam Plutko and the Tribe can win here but Adam Plutko cannot be priced like he’s Blake Snell pitching for the Rays. Jesus.

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Our Pick

DETROIT +146 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.92)

 

 

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