Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
12:10 PM EST. In the opening game of this series, Joe Musgrove (RHP - PIT) was unjustly ejected in the first inning and the Pirates scored seven times but lost 13-7. The Pirates belted out 10 hits and four batters got on via the walk. Game 2 -- the Pirates scored five more times but lost 7-5 after a rain shortened, eight inning game. They belted out another 10 hits and another four batters walked. Yesterday -- the Pirates scored seven times, belted out 13 hits and lost in extra innings, 8-7. They scored 19 runs in the three games in Atlanta, belted out 33 hits and have nothing to show for it. Scoring runs, belting out hits and taking walks every game does not correlate to losing every game. To the market, the Pirates look like easy pickings and the prices on them remain inflated. A jacked up Musgrove, who threw just nine pitches in the opener might just give the Pirates the boost they need. Again, Pittsburgh’s offense is too good to keep losing at this pace and that sets up this one nicely.
Julio Teheran (RHP - ATL) has a 0.83 ERA in his six starts over the past month. Teheran has been at his best at home with a 1.93 ERA so why is Julio Teheran a fade target? The problem is that over the past month, Teheran has been more lucky than skillful. His success has been driven by a 19% hit rate, a 91% strand rate and a 0% hr/f rate. His xERA of 4.85 over that span, which is four runs higher than his actual ERA, screams regression. Beware.
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Pittsburgh +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)