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Arizona +122 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +122 BET 365 +120 SportsInteraction +120  5DIMES +121

Posted at 1:15 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Jon Duplantier will make his third start of the year after posting a BB/K split of 8/23 in 22 innings so far which includes five short appearances out of the pen. In a small sample size, he also has a nice ERA/xERA split of 3.27/3.70. Duplantier’s big and tall frame makes for a towering presence on the mound. His size pairs well with solid, fluid arm speed, featuring a figure eight shaped motion with his pitching arm during his windup, and getting good extension on his release point. He throws from a three-quarter arm slot that creates deception for hitters. It also produces natural tail on his fastball, a pitch that will sit in the low to mid-90s. His slider and curveball can sometimes come from a slighter higher release point. The slider is his best off-speed pitch, and the tight mid-80s pitch produces swings and misses. Duplantier uses his curveball sparingly, more of a show-me pitch to get hitters off his slider. He will also show a changeup, though mainly to lefties.

Overall, he has average command for all his pitches, with the fastball and slider being the most well rounded. He also shows a strong understanding of pitch sequencing and how to set up hitters. Duplantier also added a couple ticks to his heater this past spring, sitting 96 mph. Long term, he remains an excellent prospect with #2 starter potential and we like that the Phillies have never seen him. Incidentally, Duplantier looked confident and pitched very well against the Dodgers last game out (5 IP, 3H, 2ER, 7K).

Jake Arrieta (RHP - PHI) is stumbling of late, with four of his last six starts resulting in weak starts and early exits. He is allowing HR at an alarming rate, as he owns a 21% hr/f and has given up six over his last three starts.Left-handed batters have been troubling to him, as they have a .946 OPS against him. The Diamondbacks lineup has hit well on the road, where they average 5.7 runs per game and have an .804 OPS. The Diamondbacks first three hitters went yard last night to give them a 3-0 lead and eventually are seeing beach balls at the plate the past few games and figure to get to Arietta too. Great value here.

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Our Pick

Arizona +122 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.44)




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