Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:15 PM EST.
7:05 PM EST. Price here on the Mets is too high and we therefore have to play the strong value. Jason Vargas (LHP - NYM) hurled his second pure quality start in a row in his last outing, a complete game shutout, against the Giants. Since returning from the injured list, Vargas has allowed two earned runs over 21 frames with 17 K’s against seven walks. Furthermore, the Yankees offense has been significantly worse against southpaws (80 Weighted Runs Created, which ranks 24th in MLB) and their offense has also been league average over the last seven days. The Yanks offense also owns the third highest K% against LHP (27%). These pitchers that rely more on keeping hitters off balance than throwing 96 MPH are becoming more and more valuable every day.
Masahiro Tanaka (RHP - NYY) left the team on June 8 for the birth of his child and missed his scheduled start Sunday, June 9. Tanaka is being pushed back a day and who knows what type of outing he’ll have or how ready he’ll be after all the excitement. Tanaka's command and fastball velocity thus far in 2019 are exhibiting a gentle decline as compared to the past few seasons, but he has also pitched through the sixth inning in nine of 13 starts in 2019 to date, including the last six starts in a row. In his last start against Toronto, he struck out two Blue Jays in six innings while taking the loss. Over his last nine starts, Tanaka has three losses, four no decisions and two wins with one of those victories occurring against Kansas City. Of course the Yankees can win here but Tanaka is priced like he rarely loses and that’s simply not the case. Big overlay here.
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N.Y. Mets +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)