Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST.
1:05 PM EST. The Phillies are 37-27 and in first place in the NL East with a run differential of +25. The Reds are 28-35 and in last place in the NL Central with a better run differential (+32) than Philadelphia. We’re not sure if anyone realizes how messed up that is. For instance, the Giants have almost the same winning percentage as the Reds and San Fran’s run differential is -85. The White Sox are 30-33 and they’re run differential is -49. The Braves run differential is just +14 and they’re 35-29. We could go on and on about the correlation between run differential and winning or losing baseball game but you can see for yourself. The point is that the Reds are a very good team that has had nothing but bad luck. A correction is coming to their won/loss record and anytime we can get Sonny Gray (RHP - CIN) at a price, you can pencil us in.
Gray enters this start against Philadelphia’s average offense with a 3.08 ERA in his last five games started. He's creating swings and misses with a 12% swing and miss rate and his inducing grounders with an elite 58% groundball rate. Sonny Gray is dealing it with few pitchers having been more effective pitching from a full windup than Gray has (10.8 K’s/9, 55% grounders and a 2.89 xERA). Overall, Gray has a BB/K split of 23/68 in 61 frames.
Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) is also good. Nola will try to rebound here after giving up six earned in 5.1 innings at San Diego on June 3. Nola has 79 K’s in 71 innings but his 10% swing and miss rate does not support those strikeouts. Furthermore, Nola has a far below average 1.53 WHIP so he’s allowing a lot of baserunners due to his 31 walks allowed and often falling behind batters with a 56% first-pitch strike rate (48% last start). Although he's still searching for his first gem of 2019, his career skills are good but perhaps there is a nagging injury that he’s not revealing or maybe he overachieved previously. Whatever the case, Gray is the superior pitcher and the Reds are simply too good to keep losing games when their win expectation says they shouldn’t be.
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Cincinnati +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)