Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:15 PM EST.
4:10 PM EST. Jordan Lyles (RHP - PIT) is one of the few starters in the game that is significantly better pitching from the stretch with 10.0 K’s/9, 2.1 BB’s/9 and a 51% groundball rate. That’s not a bad skill to have when facing the Crew in Milwaukee. Overall, Lyles has 61 K’s in 61 innings with just 20 walks issued and he has 32 K’s in his last 29 frames with a skills supported 13% swing & miss rate. Lyles will now face a Brewers’ squad that strikes out more than any team in baseball except Seattle. That said, this is the biggest overlay on the board today because Zachary Davies (RHP - MIL) is without question the luckiest pitcher in America and we’re not just talking about the pros.
It is seriously ridiculous that Davies has posted a 2.21 ERA after 12 starts because he has the skills of a career minor leaguer that could never make it to the majors. We have seen extreme luck before but this guy is defying logic in a big way and we promise you it cannot last. Davies has an extremely weak BB/K split of 20/45 in 70 innings. His batted ball profile of 42% grounders, 24% line-drives and 35% fly-balls is also weak. He has a swing & miss rate of 8% with a weak first-pitch strike rate of 54%. Everything in Davies profile is weak. Zach Davies is currently among the ERA leaders among starters but his skills tell a completely different story, as he's throwing more balls (you know, ball 1, ball 2) than ever, and whiffing fewer than usual. The fact he's basically reduced his repertoire to two pitches, highlighted by a sinker that is bottom-five in the league in terms of velocity makes his success this year even more mind-boggling. Davies does not have one redeeming skill and the fact that he’s favored in this range is further proof how the market values ERA’s and results more than actual skills. Davies would be a good fade if he was -120 but he’s in the Max Scherzer range today. Incredible. Go Buccos -- pay this one off because it’s such a preposterous price.
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Pittsburgh +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)