Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST.
7:05 PM EST. Zach Eflin (RHP - PHI) is returning from an IL stint for back tightness following a pretty lousy three-game stretch in which he posted a 4.91 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 4.3 BB’s/9, and 1.8 HR/9. The Reds have been pretty lousy themselves on the road (.650 OPS), but their contact rate in those games has been 75% and once again we’ll reiterate that Cincinnati’s 28-33 record is one of the league’s most misleading. The Reds are a very good team with a losing record and they also possess one of the best bullpens in the game. Eflin has had an up-and-down season for the Phillies. He has a trio of very good starts with one gem but he also has four weak starts and a disaster. Overall, he has a 3.02/4.49 ERA/xERA so he is in line for some regression.
Tyler Mahle (RHP - CIN) was one of the most skilled starters in MLB during the month of May with 10.5 K’s/9 1.6 BB’s/9, 43% grounders and an elite 3.25 xERA. While his command sub-indicators didn't quite support those skills, they were close and he's another pitcher whose offspeed stuff improved quite a bit in May. His overall 3.52 xERA is an indication of his upside. Mahle and the Reds are just such a live underdog combo that it must be played. Throw in Philadelphia’s park factor (small park, high scores) and this is another game that can be used on the ALT run line in some parlays.
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Cincinnati +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)