Arizona @ TORONTO
Arizona +115 over TORONTO

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +115 BET 365 +110 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +105

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

7:07 PM EST. Many reasons to fade the Blue Jays here and we’ll start with the price. That alone makes the D-Backs worth a bet because Toronto’s chances of losing are almost always greater than their chances of winning. Secondly, the Jays are coming off a series against the Yankees that drew big crowds and Toronto took two of three. The Blue Jays will not be more emotionally charged than they were against the rival Yanks this entire year but even if they are, there is a definite letdown factor in play for this series against the D-Backs, especially in the opener tonight, as there is another Toronto team playing tonight that will draw just a little more interest. In other words, the Blue Jays are in a letdown spot and will be playing to a tiny audience.

Marcus Stroman's (RHP - TOR) strikeout rate has been declining (5.1 K’s/9, 9% swing & miss rate over last six games started) and his xERA has been rising (4.42 over last six), and his opponent, Arizona, has hit better in away games this year: .796 OPS. Stroman has also been struggling vs. LHB (.748 OPS allowed, compared to .587 vs. RHB), and the Diamondbacks' Friday lineup could feature as many as six lefties with the addition of a DH spot.

Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI) spent the last three years pitching in the KBO League in South Korea, and while we wouldn't expect his numbers here to match what he did there, the drop-off has been pretty steep in terms of his ERA but he pitches half his games in an extreme hitters park and his xERA says better days lie ahead. Furthermore, his surface ERA and WHIP were damaged badly in one game when he surrendered seven walks in 3.2 innings against the Cubs. That was uncharacteristic, as Kelly has very good control. In his last start, Kelly went 7.2 innings vs the Mets, struck out 10, walked none and allowed one earned run. Kelly wasn't much of a prospect in the minors (he started out in the Tampa organization), but added velocity and more pitchers to his repertoire in South Korea and successfully revived his career. The Diamondbacks signed him hoping to get a back-end starter but he’s proven to be better than they had hoped. 12 starts is still a small sample at this point, but he’s durable, he has a BB/K split of 6/24 over his last five starts covering 28 innings and it’s not like he’s facing some juggernaut offense here.

Now a little side dish: If you’re in Toronto visiting or on your way down to the Jays game or Jurassic Park to watch the Raptors and you want to grab a bite, you can get the best BBQ chicken and burgers in the city at George's Deli & BBQ on the Southeast Corner of Bathurst and Bloor. This hidden gem in the Annex is a family run business with the most delicious BBQ chicken, burgers, pitas and more at great prices. They truly appreciate your business with the customer service always being top-notch. Seriously, stop by. You’ll be happy you did. 795 Bathurst St, Toronto.

Open an account today at and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks



Our Pick

Arizona +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110