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San Francisco @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS -1 +127 over San Francisco

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +127 BET 365 -1½ +125 SportsInteraction -1½ +120 5DIMES -1½ +124

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

12:10 PM EST. There was a lot of buzz surrounding Zack Wheeler (RHP - NYM) heading into 2019 following a stellar 2.21 ERA and 93 K in 94 IP in the second half of 2018. However, with an ERA of 4.68 after 12 starts, Wheeler’s stock is so much lower than it should be because he has the skills of an ace. Wheeler had a rough April, posting a 4.70 ERA and walking 16 batters in 31 frames, but it’s worth noting that he was reportedly battling mechanical issues for a chunk of that month. He has displayed electric skills over his last six starts, including 10.8 K’s/9, 2 BB’s/9, 13% swing & miss rate, 68% first-pitch strike rate, and 47% grounders. His 4.68 ERA is the result of a misfortunate 65% strand rate, 34% hit rate and a .320 BABIP. Wheeler’s xERA of 3.05 over his last five starts is the second best xERA in the majors over that span. He also has 40 K’s against just six walks over that same span covering 34 innings.

Shaun Anderson (RHP - SF) has made only one start on the road, and he hurled a decent game at Baltimore (on paper) where he went seven full and allowed just five hits and two earned runs for a 2.57 ERA. However, his swing and miss rate against the O’s was 4%. His xERA for that game was 4.76 not 2.57. Anderson will now make his fifth start of the year and his low 5.3 K’s/9 and borderline command give him little room for error. Overall, Anderson has 13 K’s in 22 frames and four of those K’s were against opposing NL pitchers. He’s at the mercy of strand rate and batted balls in play. Finally, the Mets have been excellent at home, ranking 4th in the NL in home OPS while averaging five runs per game.

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Our Pick

N.Y. METS -1 +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)