Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
8:05 PM EST. Ariel Jurado (RHP - TEX) has an enticing 2.43 ERA, but most of that ERA came in relief. His three starts have all been around average with an ERA/xERA split of 3.25/4.27 but his OPS as a starter is .725 versus .597 in relief. Baltimore has struggled on the road with an OPS below .700 that ranks 12th in the AL, and the Orioles have an OPS below .700 versus RHP. Ariel Jurado is not the target here --- David Hess (RHP - BAL) and the Orioles are.
Hess has one win in 11 starts with an ERA of 7.36. Last year, Hess went 3-10 in 19 starts with a 4.88 ERA in 103 innings when nobody knew who he was. Over his last 25 frames, Hess has walked 13 batters and over that span, his ERA (9.85) and xERA (6.73) are both going in the wrong direction. David Hess tends to leave his fringy stuff up in the zone. That often results in a barrage of hard-hit fly-balls, many of which leave the yard. Without a swing-and-miss pitch (see swing & miss rate), he's a blow-up ready to happen (see disaster start %) with little upside (see xERA). Fade him, see?
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TEXAS -1½ +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)