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Baltimore @ TEXAS
TEXAS -1 +120 over Baltimore

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +119 BET 365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction -1½ +120 5DIMES -1½ +120

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

8:05 PM EST. Last week, we bet against the Orioles at home v San Francisco in the first game of a three-game set. The Giants would score five in the first but the O’s scored six in the bottom of the first, capped off by a grand slam and went on to win the game. San Francisco would subsequently win the next two games, 8-2 and 8-1 but we were nowhere to be found. Yesterday, we bet against the O’s again and even though Texas scored 11 times, Baltimore scored 12 times and once again hit a granny in the first frame. However, this time we’re sticking with it and will bet against the Orioles almost every time we can take back a tag while spotting runs.

John Means (LHP - BAL) has had a few nice home starts peppered in among several missteps on the road. The Rangers have banged out a .799 OPS at home, and have overall pounded the change-up (Means’ most used weapon) harder than any other team. The Orioles bullpen is horrible.

Mike Minor (LHP - TEX) is an absolute go for his home turn against bottom-feeder Baltimore. Look past some of Minor’s pitching lines. Minor has been hamstrung by a 41% hit rate while logging a 3.33 ERA (and 10.7 K’s/9) over his last five games started. Despite working against an unlucky 32% hit rate at home, he’s logged a 2.50 ERA through 40 innings. Minor is handling RHBs efficiently, and he draws a pitcher’s breeze in from center. Minor has 32 K’s over his last 27 innings. Long his best pitch, Minor is wisely leaning harder on his plus-plus change-up to induce whiffs and soft contact (18%). He's also using it in the zone more often to get swings-and-misses at an elite rate.

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Our Pick

TEXAS -1 +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

 

 

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