Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
1:20 PM EST. With 13 runs scored in the first two games of this series, we like the way Detroit is seeing the ball here. They whacked Mike Foltynewicz on Friday and had some great AB’s against Mike Soroka yesterday while scoring five runs overall. The Tigers will now take a massive step down when facing Julio Teheran (RHP- ATL)
Teheran has been keeping the ball in the park lately, as he has five straight starts without allowing a jack but that’s very likely coming to an end here because he has a high 42% hard-contact allowed rate with a 40% fly-ball rate. Those two weak rates are not conducive to keeping the ball in the park. Teheran’s 4.64 xERA isn't encouraging either. On the surface, Teheran is having a passable year with a 3.63 ERA. Underneath, both his command vL and his velocity (89 MPH average) are career worsts. Only a .241 BABIP and 78% strand has kept his ERA (and WHIP) lower than it should be. His skills clearly reveal that he's a below-average pitcher heading in the wrong direction. Regression is inevitable.
Matthew Boyd (LHP - DET) is continuing on his path towards a breakout season. He posted a strong 2.55 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 35 innings during May, stats that came with full support from his underlying skills: 10.2 K’s/9, 1.3 BB’s/9, 2.55 xERA. Matt Boyd has a BB’K split of 5/40 over his last 35 innings. His career-high strikeout rate and command support the great heights he has reached and he's at right age (28) to continue this breakout.
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Detroit +152 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.04)