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Houston @ OAKLAND
Houston -1 +125 over OAKLAND

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +125 BET 365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction -1½ +120 5DIMES -1½ +121

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

4:07 PM EST. Chris Bassitt (RHP - OAK) is a 30-year-old pitcher that has 37 career starts at this level, which includes seven this year. He’ll come into this start with a 3.27 with 47 K’s in 41 innings. Say what? Bassitt has never posted a sub-4 xERA, and his career 8% swing & miss rate before this year further reveals a pitcher with limited stuff. From time to time, a pitcher will add or subtract something and it may take a month or two for MLB players to adjust to something out of character. Hitters studied Bassitt before and then they go up there and it’s suddenly different from what they studied so they adjust. Not only is Bassitt a below average starter and has been up and down from the minors his entire career but he’s been aided by extreme luck this year with a .229 BABIP and a 90.2% strand rate. Both are incredibly unsustainable numbers.

Does anyone realize how great Gerrit Cole (RHP - HOU) has been this year? Cole is a rotation anchor that has the surface stats of a #3 starter with his 4.02 ERA. However, Cole's skills have been elite all season long (2.60 xERA in April, 2.44 xERA in May). He was saddled with a 63% strand rate and 18% hr/f in April, which contributed to his 4.34 ERA that month. Gerrit Cole has 112 K’s in 72 innings. He has a 17% swing & miss rate and his xERA is the best xERA in baseball. His groundball rate has been ower than his career rate but a 56% rate over his last two starts reveals that he’s found that skill again. Cole is a legit ace playing for a juggernaut team that we’re getting at SP2 or SP3 prices.

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Our Pick

Houston -1 +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

 

 

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