Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
8:15 PM EST. The Cardinals snapped a four-game losing streak with a 5-3 win over Philadelphia yesterday but scored five runs on four jacks while the Phillies left 17 men on base. The Cardinals are a game under .500 and were one of MLB’s worst teams in May. They’re favored here because of their pedigree and because Yu Darvish (RHP - CHC) has two wins and a 5.67 ERA after 11 starts. That is so sweet because Yu Darvish’s misleading surface ERA allows us to buy him at a bargain basement price. Darvish is showing signs that he might finally be getting over his control problems, with 2.5 BB’s/9 and 71% first-pitch strike rate over his last three starts, which has also come with 11.5 K’s/9 and a 14% swing & miss rate. Yu Darvish has filthy stuff that has led to 67 K’s in 55 innings and 34 K’s over his last 26 innings.
Miles Mikolas (RHP, STL) has turned his skills around in May, with a 0.6 BB’s/9, 8.6 K’s/9, 71% first-pitch strike rate, 12% swing & miss rate, and 2.98 xERA over his last five games started, and in his last start, his velocity was at its highest level of 2019. However, he only has 46 K’s in 62 innings and his overall xERA is 4.27. Furthermore, the Cubs bring a Top 10 offense and good road numbers (.833 OPS, 126 PX) to this matchup, and enough lefties to potentially take advantage of Mikolas's platoon splits (.963 OPS, 2.4 BB’s/9, 2.7 hr/9 vs. LHB). Frankly, we don’t care who the Cardinals throw out there because this wager is more about getting behind the Cubs and their underpriced starter.
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Chicago +112 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.24)