Pittsburgh @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI -1½ +130 over Pittsburgh

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Posted at 10:20 AM EST. 

12:35 PM EST. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - CIN) continues to be hurt by home runs and in his last start, mixed in some control problems. After a May 6 start against the Giants, DeSclafani had a 3.65 ERA after seven starts. He’s coming off three rough starts in a row and his ERA is now 4.99, which allows us to buy him and the Reds at a bargain. DeSclafani has a very impressive BB/K split of 17/52 in 49 innings. This is a post-hype pitcher that got better late in the season last year. He posted great skills after July 1 that included 9 K’s/9 and a 3.71 xERA. DeSclafani missed 320 games in last three years to injuries, so his 21 starts in 2018 were a feat. More impressive was his xERA got better each month with his 2nd half strikeout rate and command at levels heretofore unseen. He’s pitching even better this year with a 13% swing & miss rate and a higher K-rate. Dude has put himself back on the map but the market is still very unfamiliar with him.

Steven Brault (LHP - PIT) has appeared in eight games this year covering 25 innings with two of those being starts. He has walked 16 batters and struck out 21 for a horrible mark of 5.7 BB’s/9. His swinging strike rate of 8% doesn’t support the 21 K’s either. Whatever edge his deceptive delivery and arm slot gives him is being negated by his inability to master the strike zone. His history of struggles vR got him demoted to the pen. The Pirates are forced to find starters because they’ve been hit hard by injuries, which is the only reason that Brault is starting here. Brault is basically a lefty specialist with control issues and a subpar strikeout rate and this is not the résumé you want to back in this market. With a 7.11 ERA and walking close to six batters per nibe innings, Brault will now face a hot-hitting Reds' squad in a hitters paradise on a warm, afternoon, breeze-out-to-left day in Cincinnati.

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Our Pick

CINCINNATI -1½ +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

No Run in First Inning -105