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Arizona @ COLORADO
Arizona -1 +178 over COLORADO

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +178 BET 365 -1½ +175 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES  -1½ +175

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

8:40 PM EST. This is very simply the “Coors Field” angle being back in play. We always like to spot 1½-runs at this park because so few games are decided by a run and the result is great value. In this case, we’ll fade Colorado’s starter.

In 42 innings this year covering eight appearances with two starts, Antonio Senzatela (RHP - COL) has walked 18 batters while whiffing a mere 27 batters. That’s a horrible ratio and a horrible strikeout rate too. It is well known that relievers strike out more batters than most starters because they only have to face between one and six batters (usually) and therefore can empty their tanks against a handful of batters. Senzatela’s swing & miss rate as a reliever was a lousy 7% and his swing & miss rate as a starter is worse at 6%. Senzatela’s only redeeming skill is his ability to induce grounders (52%) but his WHIP of 1.62, xERA of 8.23 at Coors and weak command and strikeout numbers make him a prime fade target.

Arizona’s starter doesn’t instill confidence in us but he’s not favored here. If he was, we would be playing the Rockies on the ALT run-line. The 30-year-old Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI) wasn't much of a prospect in the minors (he started out in the Tampa organization), but added velocity and more pitchers to his repertoire in South Korea and successfully revived his career. The Diamondbacks signed him hoping to get a back-end starter and that's the level at which he's performed thus far. But the deterioration of his skills in May is a concern, as the difference between his first and second months of work are the difference between being bet-worthy or not. 10 starts is still a small sample at this point, but there's enough warts here that he'll need to be faded at a later date when he’s favored or evenly priced somewhere else.

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Our Pick

Arizona -1 +178 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.56)




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