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Detroit -101 over BALTIMORE

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -101 BET 365 -110 SportsInteraction -105 5DIMES -103

Posted at 10:45 AM EST. 

1:05 PM EST. Daniel Norris (LHP - DET) receives a bump to his win probability here based on his matchup against the Orioles. The Baltimore offense ranks in the bottom tier in Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) against LHP and over the last week. Norris has compiled a 3.32 ERA on the road, compared to a 5.18 ERA at home. His K rating is positive due to the Orioles' propensity to strike out against LHP (28%) and we also like that the Orioles are returning home after an exhausting three-game series in Colorado’s high altitude. Norris’ career-high 66% first-pitch strike rate and 2.2 BB’s/9 helps yield a positive WHIP score for this one as well. In his last start, Norris’ velo was up from an average of 90.2 to 91.3. He didn’t walk a batter and went six full while whiffing five. The Tigers stock is low after losing 12 of 13 but they had some great AB’s this weekend against Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard with 15 hits and nine runs scored combined against that pair over 12.2 frames.

Baltimore’s worn out and weak bullpen will get called upon early today and that increases Detroit’s chances even more. Gabriel Ynoa (RHP - BAL) moves from the pen to the rotation after appearing in nine games covering just 18 innings all in relief. Ynoa will be limited today (40-60 pitch) and he’s been scored upon in four straight appearances and has poor surface results (5.60 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) as a reliever. He’s a reliever because of a limited arsenal and while he has some positive signs, (18 K’s, 55% grounders), that has come when he’s being asked to face four, five or six hitters. Camden Yards favors hitters. Ynoa has allowed four HR in his last three innings at home (two appearances) and owns a 1.5 hr/9 (18% hr/f) for the season. With mixed grades and a limited pitch count while pitching for Baltimore, Ynoa and the O’s must be faded here.

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Our Pick

Detroit -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)