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Detroit @ N.Y. METS
Detroit +160 over N.Y. METS

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +160 BET 365 +150 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES  +150

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

1:10 PM EST. The Mets have won five of their last six games while scoring five runs or more in every game, which included eight runs scored in the game they lost over that stretch. It is literally impossible to keep bashing it like the Mets are right now and with their stock way up again after they got swept by Miami before this current run, we’re sellers because they’re very overpriced.

Zack Wheeler (RHP - NYM) is a prime example of why health-ravaged, premium young arms can’t be completely counted out. Three years off TJS and ineffective comeback efforts, Wheeler’s velocity and control showed life - and then some - beginning in June of last year. His second half hit%/strand% combo fueled an ERA that will regress. His workload is ominous but he’s now a reasonable risk portfolio pick when he’s taking back a price like he was last week in Washington. However, as the chalk in this range, we’re not buying. Wheeler is indeed having a good year with 70 K’s in 63 innings. Should that continue, it would be a career-high strikeout rate but his overall 11% swing & miss rate doesn’t fully support it, so barring an increase in swings and misses, look for a little pullback in his strikeouts. Wheeler has been tagged for three jacks and nine earned runs over his last 13 innings.

Spencer Turnbull (RHP - DET) is high on our radar. Keep a close eye on this kid because he’s good. Turnbull went 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA in 16 innings for the Tigers last year but strong command across four minor-league levels actually improved in his brief MLB sample. His unlucky 50% strand rate sunk any chance of success. Turnbull’s useful 4-pitch mix along with a career 8.5 K’s/9 (minors) gave him the elements of something to build on and he has not looked a bit out of place this year. He's actually swung to the other side of luck, with a high strand rate and low hr/f, but his xERA and skills still paint him as a quality starter. His above-average first-pitch strike rate also suggests we could see fewer walks going forward, which would further lower his xERA and minimize the amount of regression his ERA might see. His groundball rate is another strong skill, and one that is backed up by his track record in the minors, where he never posted a full-season rate lower than 50%. Turnbull is off to a great start, and while he's unlikely to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA, he's got skills worth backing. He has 54 K’s in 54 innings with a supported 13% swing & miss rate, He's an intriguing arm worth watching and absolutely worth getting behind at this price against a very banged up Mets’ squad.

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Our Pick

Detroit +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)

 

 

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