Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:00 AM EST.
8:05 PM EST. Mike Minor (LHP - TEX) has started nine games this year with four of those coming at Arlington Park. His first start of the year at home was against the Cubbies and Minor was knocked out after 4.2 innings after surrendering six earned runs. However, after that first start at home, dude has been lights out at Arlington Park, pitching 24 innings at home against the Astronauts, Angels and Blue Jays respectively and not allowing a run.
Minor has 34 K’s over his last 31 innings, which is supported by a 13% swing & miss rate. He’s averaging 93.6 MPH on the gun and is now using four pitches with regularity (fastball - 43%, change -24.1%, curve -16.9% and slider 16.1%). For the season, Minor currently sports a 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and will now face a Mariners lineup has been struggling of late. Minor’s strong scores across the board make this an attractive matchup.
Mike Leake (RHP - SEA) faces the Rangers for the second time this season after registering a disaster against them on April 27th. Leake’s results have been favorable over his last two games started (13.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB) but he’s had issues with the long ball throughout the year (1.8 hr/9, 17% hr/f) and we love to fade bad starters off a couple of good outings. The Rangers boast the highest run production at home (6.3 RPG), and sit in the top-5 in Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) against RHP as well. In addition, the current Rangers lineup has a .353 BA and .976 OPS spanning 150 AB’s against Leake. We have no idea how Mike Leake avoids another disaster here.
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TEXAS -1½ +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)