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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. 

10:10 PM EST. Luke Weaver (RHP - ARI) had a stellar six start stretch prior to posting a rough outing in his last start against the Pirates. His results for the season have been significantly better than in 2018 (3.16 ERA, 3.56 xERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.6 K’s/9, 12% swing & miss rate, 2.1 BB’s/9, 63% first-pitch strike rate and a 53/33% dominant start/weak start split). The Padres come in sporting the fifth-worst wRC+ over the last 14 days. The Friars offense also ranks poorly in RPG at home (3.5) and against RHP (83 wRC+). Weaver is dealing it with a BB/K split of 12/55 over 51 frames and his swing & miss rates have been progressively increasing since his season debut. Luke Weaver is an elite starter with the underlying support to prove it.

Chris Paddack (RHP, SD) has been very impressive for a rookie pitcher, let alone one with only 39 innings of experience in Double-A prior to his call-up and one who missed all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery. Paddock comes into this start with a 1.99 ERA and 0.75 WHIP after eight starts covering 45 innings. He also has a nifty BB/K split of 11/49 over said 45 frames and now you will pay a premium to get behind him.

Chris Paddack was a surprise call-up to start the 2019 season. Again, he made the jump from Double-A to the majors and has caught a bunch of teams off guard. They old adage is that MLB hitters will make adjustments and he’s not the first pitcher to come out of Double A and dominate for a few starts before the wheels fell off. Paddock had a 3% swing & miss rate in his last start and didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. He missed all of 2017 and only threw 90 innings in 2018 so the Padres might be pressing him a bit too hard.  The kid has flashed the kind of upside that could make him a frontline starter for years to come but rarely does that happen so quickly for a starter that missed Triple -A and that was an eighth round draft pick. Paddack’s surface ERA has been greatly aided by an unsustainable .179 BABIP. We’ll see how it plays out for Paddack but in no way should he be favored in this range against Luke Weaver and it’s also worth noting that the team he pitches for is laboring badly right now

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