Houston @ BOSTON
Houston -1½ +137 over BOSTON

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +137 BET 365 -1½ +135 SportsInteraction -1½ +135 5DIMES  -1½ +135

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

7:15 PM EST. One could choose to spot -110 or thereabouts with the Astronauts here but with a total of 10½, runs are expected and we’re going to gamble that most of those runs will be scored by Houston. There is definite value in the Astros being evenly priced here so proceed as you will.

23-year-old Corbin Martin (RHP - HOU) makes just his second start in his MLB career here after being called up last week. Martin was drafted in the second round in 2017 and has been a fast mover with near front-line stuff. At 6’2” and 200 pounds, the former Aggie operates with three pitches in his fastball, curve and slider that flash plus and feature high spin rates, alongside strides made with his changeup, which now sits more consistently average. Martin would get in 32.2 innings post draft, and then open 2018 in high Single-A, not giving up a run in 19 frames and striking out 26 before a quick promotion to Double-A Corpus Christi where he similarly pitched well. The strikeouts dropped a bit but Martin featured a solid ground-ball tilt and his four-pitch mix made him difficult to hit, with a .221 oppBA in Double-A, alongside both mid-season and postseason All-Star selections. Martin opened 2019 at Triple-A Round Rock and has been even better, posting 28 K’s and 11 BB, with a 1.48 ERA and .173 oppBA over 24.1 innings. With Colin McHugh relegated to the bullpen, Martin has every opportunity to run with this chance and should carve out at least a No. 3 starter future in the bigs and maybe even more. His PCL numbers (at Round Rock) prior to being called up were outstanding considering the PCL is a massive hitter’s league. Martin got his feet wet last week with a start against Texas and struck out nine batters in five innings with a 13% swing and miss rate.

Then there’s Hector Velazquez (RHP - BOS) who is in the rotation because the Red Sox are running out of bodies. As soon as one of their starters return, Velazquez will be relegated back to mop-up. This sinkerballing soft-tosser rode a lucky strand % to a 3.18 ERA last year but his xERA of 5.16 tells the real story. His weak strikeout rate/swing & miss history takes away any hope of impact potential, so we're left with a swingman/long-reliever who doesn't miss bats. Over his last 15 innings, Velasquez has walked eight batters with 12 K’s but his 9% swing & miss rate does not support the 12 K’s. Hector Velazquez has appeared in 12 games this year with half of those coming out of the pen. His ground-ball rate as a starter this year is a troublesome 30%. Dude has been a non-factor everywhere he pitches and now the Astros get to take their shot at him.

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Our Pick

Houston -1½ +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110