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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.
7:15 PM EST. Kevin Gausman’s (RHP - ATL) 4.43 ERA through the first four months of last year was squashed down to just 2.87 in Atlanta, though it was mostly derived from cutting his horrendous 1.50 HR/9 in half in his final 10 starts. In eight starts this year, Gausman brings a 4.50/4.06 ERA/xERA split and that xERA is predicated mostly on the increase in his strikeouts. Gausman has struck out 46 batters in 42 innings with a supported 14% swing and miss rate. While Gausman’s profile brings risk, his strength (strikeouts) plays into a Brewers weakness. You see, Milwaukee has struck out 453 times this year and that leads MLB. By comparison, the Braves have struck out just 369 times. Furthermore, the Braves have won three in a row and six of seven while outscoring the opposition 39-18 in the six victories.
Milwaukee is getting some market respect here (Braves are only -114) because Chase Anderson has a 3.22 ERA and is 2-0 in two starts since joining the rotation. Previously, Anderson was working out of the pen and made five relief appearances before being “promoted”. Anderson is no stranger to starting, as he’s made 135 starts at this level from 2014 to 2018. He did not make the rotation out of spring training and now because of two starts, he’s getting way too much credit. Anderson’s xERA is 4.68. He had longball-induced nightmares last year and he’s likely not going to be able to dispel that HR specter in light of his rising fly-ball rate that sits at 44% this year with a weak 31% groundball-rate. He also has middling strikeout and swing & miss rates. Anderson generally outpitches his xERA, but no single skill stands out and again, he’s getting too much credit here in a small sample. His charmed life is about to end.
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ATLANTA -1½ +162 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.24)