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Oakland @ DETROIT
Oakland -1 -103 over DETROIT

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ -103 BET 365 -1½ -105 SportsInteraction -1½ -105 5DIMES  -1½ -105

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. Daniel Norris (LHP - DET) missed most of last season after he underwent groin surgery in May. He’s made just five starts and three relief appearances this year and pretty it is not. Velocity drop adds some concern, especially when combined with a groundball loss that now sits at 35% for the year. Throw in a weak 8% swing & miss rate and a disaster start %-heavy baseline that says he'll do more harm than good to one’s bankroll. Pay no attention to Norris’ 3.63 surface ERA because it’s been heavily aided by an unsustainable 84% strand rate and extremely lucky 28% hit rate. All those balls in play that he allows are going to start finding places to land real soon.

Frankie Montas (RHP - OAK) might be the AL’s most under the radar pitcher right now so all you fantasy players should grab him if he’s available. Montas is pumping 96+ MPH heat with a heavy sinker that is mixed with a new splitter that has missed bats this year at an 18% rate and a developing slider that has returned a .143 BAA thus far. He’s now starting to get his breaker over the plate more often, thus setting up his nasty splitter. Montas has a BB/K split of 7/28 over his last 28 innings with a supported 13% swing & miss rate. He also has an elite 52% groundball rate and now his first-pitch strike rate is climbing rapidly too and is up to 64% over his last five starts. Frankie Montas has a 2.78 ERA and it’s no fluke. Finally, the Tigers are 18-24 this year but pay attention to their -81 run differential that tells is that this team is really no better than the Orioles or Marlins. A weak pitcher goes here for the Tigers and their beaten down bullpen will follow.

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Our Pick

Oakland -1 -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)

 

 

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