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Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

9:40 PM EST. We’re not sure which Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI) we’re going to get but we’ll live with whatever he delivers here. Kelly can be like the arm we saw against the Braves last time out, featuring plenty of curveballs on and off the plate, allowing him to surprise batters with well-located heat and changeups for outs, or we could see the curveball disappear with the reliance on worse cutters as his gameplan. With the velocity back to 91-93 mph, the floor is a bit higher and he’s worth gambling on here as he faces the Giants bottom 10 offense. Aside from that, this wager is more about fading the Giants old and washed up weak starter.

A 29% groundball rate and 50% fly-ball rate that has grown to 56% over his last five games started hangs over Jeff Samardzija's (RHP, SF) very misleading 3.51 surface ERA like a dark cloud. Samardzija's 4.82 xERA says regression is about to rain on his parade. Jeff Samardzija has an 8% swing and miss rate. He’ll now take that weak profile to an extreme hitter’s park that absolutely ruins fly-ball pitchers. The Diamondbacks present an above-average opponent, and Samardzija hasn't been faring well on the road so far in 2019 with a 5.43 xERA and 2.7 hr/9. His own hitter-friendly park is the only thing that is keeping him from being at the very bottom of his craft among his peers.

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