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Posted at 9:45 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. Homer Bailey (RHP- KC) allowed one run on four hits with four strikeouts and three walks across five innings to earn a victory against the Phillies last Friday. Dude now has four wins and three losses with a ERA/xERA split of 4.83/4.08. That xERA is not bad at all and it’s also worth noting that Bailey’s skills are trending the right way. He’s averaging 93.2 MPH on the gun. His groundball rate the past five games is 49%, up from his season mark of 44%. He has 38 K’s in 41 frames and is now a small price at home against a Rangers’ team that has the worst road record in the majors (6-15). Frankly, the Royals are a steal at this price.

We’ve mentioned it before and it’s worth reiterating that the Royals are among the toughest teams in the majors to strike out (78% contact rate). Only four teams are better at putting the ball in play and that bodes well here against Lance Lynn (RHP - TEX). 23 pitchers have taken the mound for the Texas Rangers in 2019, and as a group they have performed substantially less effectively than almost every team in the majors. So far in 2019, Rangers starters have a better xERA (5.50) than only the Orioles. Something, clearly, is going wrong.

The Rangers are walking far too many hitters (11.3% of batters faced, which is the second-worst mark in the league) and not striking out all that many opponents, either (19%; also second-worst, this time to a different team). No team has a K/BB worse than the Rangers’ 1.68. No team, in fact, even comes all that close. The Rangers have been bad at striking hitters out and have also been bad at not putting them on base via the free pass. Those are bad things to be bad at.

The Rangers as a group throw fastballs, as categorized by Baseball Savant — 65% of the time. This figure would have been unremarkable 10 years ago, when the league-wide fastball rate sat at 63%, but today that makes them the most fastball-happy team in the American League, and behind only the Cubs in the major leagues. Lance Lynn is at 88% and brings a 5.88 ERA into this start. Lynn is also trending the wrong way with 14 walks issued over his last 28 frames, not to mention a decreasing groundball rate that is now sitting at 38% for the year and 35% over his last five starts. Finally, in four career starts at Kauffman Stadium, Lynn has a 6.45 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. K.C. is a small pooch here because why?

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