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Posted at 9:45 AM EST. 

6:40 PM EST. Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) should be priced in the same range as the best starters in baseball because that’s precisely what he is. In fact, he might be the very best. Castillo’s strong finish to his rookie 2017 season spawned off-the-charts expectations last year thus making his 1st half performance a profound disappointment (on paper). Truth be told, his velocity was up in the 2nd half, as was everything else and it has carried over to this year with everything trending upwards even more. Castillo brings a sick 59.3% groundball rate that was 76% over his last two starts. His 17% swing & miss rate (22% last start) is also off the charts and supports his 70 K’s in 56 innings. There are no flaws or flukes in this profile only the signs of Luis Castillo being the most dominant starter in baseball but he’s priced like he’s Marcus Stroman. The Reds are a big time bargain at -128 today but once again, we’ll go for the more appealing (and riskier) run-line at this great price.

Jose Quintana (LHP - CHC) has been having some gopher ball issues on the road in 2019 (2.3 hr/9 over four games started), which makes him a big time risk against the Reds, who have a .758 OPS and 119 PX (power index) at Great American Ballpark (+24% LHB HR, +17% RHB HR) and have been hitting better against LHP (.752 OPS) than RHP (.658 OPS).

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