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St. Louis @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA -1 +153 over St. Louis

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +153 BET 365 -1½ +150 SportsInteraction -1½ +145 5DIMES  -1½ +150

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

7:20 PM EST. The Cardinals got to Mike Foltynewicz last night but so what, as Folty has been torched by everyone so we’re not going to put a lot of weight on the Cards outburst last night. This pitching mismatch heavily favors the Braves and so we’ll play if accordingly.  

Despite his poor command, sagging velocity and problematic groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates, Michael Wacha’s (RHP - ST. L) fortunate hit % helped him outpitch his xERA early on last season. However, HR’s caught up with him in June, followed by an oblique strain that shelved him for the 2nd half. This year, the sum of the metric parts looks horrible, as Wacha has walked 22 batters in 35 frames and his line-drive rate the past two games was 38% with a 29% groundball rate. The most amazing thing about Wacha is that he’s 3-0 but he deserves zero wins and seven losses in his seven starts and it’s about to blow up on him. This park is hugely unforgiving to pitcher’s that allow hard contact and Wacha will pay the price. He’s a big time fade.

Meanwhile, Michael Soroka (RHP - ATL) continues to excel in limiting hard contact (22% hard contact, 24% soft through five games started) while getting a ton of ground balls. Soroka is a solid play in Wednesday’s home start against a Cardinals' nine batting all of .246/.331/.348 since April 26. His sinker and ability to get grounders cuts into a deficit in the Cardinals attack. Soroka has ace-like stuff while Wacha has nothing.  

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Our Pick

ATLANTA -1 +153 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.06)

 

 

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