Texas @ KANSAS CITY
Texas +121 over KANSAS CITY

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +121 BET 365 +115 SportsInteraction +115  5DIMES  +115

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

8:15 PM EST. In 68 starts since 2015, Shelby Miller (RHP - TEX) has 12 wins and 37 losses. In seven starts this year, he has one win with an ERA of 7.48. The opposing pitcher has an ERA of 3.06. In his 28 innings this year over said seven starts, Miller has walked 21 and struck out 19. Furthermore, Texas has five wins in 19 road games for the worst road record in the majors. Despite all of the above, Pinnacle opened with Kansas City being a short -122 favorite and if that isn’t the enticement of the year, we don’t know what is. Shelby Miller’s credentials say he should be taking back 2-1 or more every time he takes the hill because he gets slaughtered five out of every six games he starts. Something smells funny here and so we’d be very weary about getting behind the Royals in this one. Very weary.

After being activated from the 10-day injured list Friday, April 26, Danny Duffy (LHP - KC) has made three starts and comes in with a 3.06 ERA. Duffy was originally expected to return in early April, but lingering left shoulder tightness (which began in August 2018) delayed his 2019 debut even further. His 4.1 BB’s/9 and 58% first-pitch strike rate in 2018 were significant departures (in the wrong direction) from his 2016-17 body of work. His 3.06 ERA this year is all smoke and mirrors, as he has a 4.90 xERA with 12 K’s and seven walks in 17.2 frames. Duffy’s 86% strand rate is keeping his ERA far lower than his xERA. Duffy has been around since 2011. There's just one sub-4.00 xERA and 160+ innings in a season in his box. He also hasn't been able to tame RHB, who have hit 92% of his career HR allowed. He's gone from budding ace to a flyer and oddsmakers have taken the position that either Miller is going to throw a gem or Danny Duffy is going to blow up. Either one is fine with us.

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Our Pick

Texas +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110