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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. 

10:10 PM EST. There is obvious higher risk in spotting 1½-runs with home teams at pitcher’s parks but it’s reflected in the payout so we’ll continue to play it instead of spotting a tag (Seattle was -114 at time of writing). Aside from that, this wager is more of an angle play, as Mike Fiers (RHP - OAK) is coming off a no-hitter and that’s the angle ---bet against a pitcher coming off a no-no. Throwing a no-hitter is the greatest individual accomplishment in team sports. It is highly celebrated well beyond a couple of hours afterward, not to mention the media attention and the texts and messages one has to acknowledge for days afterward. A letdown is almost inevitable. Now take that huge propensity for a letdown and apply it to a garbage pitcher like Mike Fiers and chances are great that he has an awful outing here. Even after his unlikely no-hitter, Fiers still owns a 5.48/5.18 ERA/xERA split. Fiers has a weak 8% swing & miss rate and the rest of his skills are all mediocre or worse. Over the past two seasons, Fiers also has a 22%/44% dominant start/disaster start split.

Yusei Kikiuchi (LHP, SEA) has been known in Japan for his fastball velocity. In 2017, he set what was then an NPB record for the fastest pitch recorded by a left-handed pitcher (roughly 98 mph), though it should be noted that his average fastball velocity was around 92.3 mph. In 2018, his velocity slipped a bit. According to Delta, an NPB sabermetrics site, it went down to around 91.5 mph last year. He suffered shoulder tightness that was later diagnosed as decreased functionality of his shoulder last year, so that seems to have played a part in the decline in velocity. This year his fastball is back up to 93 or 94 MPH and he’s getting stronger.

Against the Red Sox, Kikuchi averaged at 93.1 mph. Statcast had him as high as 95.4 mph. It is not Ohtani-esque big velocity, but it is a range that should work in the majors, especially if he can maintain it through starts and consistently locate it like this:

Kikuchi’s slider features a nasty 10-5 tilt. He used it as a swing-and-miss pitch in Japan, and he’s used it as one in his early going in the majors as well. Against Boston, he generated seven whiffs from 22 sliders used, which is pretty good. Here’s one to Xander Bogaerts that is representative of how he likes to use the pitch.

 Yusei Kikiuchi is getting progressively better with each start and is currently sporting a 3.54 ERA/3.72 xERA split. He’s using four pitches to keep hitters off balance and is also gaining more confidence. Kikuchi gives the M’s a real chance to win and for a starting pitcher, there’s not a lot more you can ask for. Still, this one is all about fading Fiers.

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