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Posted at 10:15 AM EST. 

8:10 PM EST. Moving from the AL Beast to NL Easy - especially the Orioles to the Braves - is a ticket to success for any pitcher and Kevin Gausman (RHP - ATL) took full advantage in 2018. His 4.43 ERA through the first four months was squashed down to just 2.87 in Atlanta, though it was mostly derived from cutting his horrendous 1.50 HR/9 in half in his final 10 starts. His drop-off in strikeouts can be blamed on improved four-seamers, jamming right-handers more frequently and that trend could stick around. A season hinting at a 3.50 ERA with around a 20% strikeout rate could very well be in the cards and through his first seven starts, things are looking pretty good. Gausman has 40 K’s in 36 innings, he’s averaging 94 MPH on the gun and he’s not walking many with a supported 63% first-pitch strike rate. That said, this one is still more a fade on Arizona’s starter.

Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI) heads into this home start against the Braves off a rocky outing in his last. Kelly owns a set of down-trending indicators and a 5.50 xERA over his last five games. He’s not only walked 15 batters over his last 25 frames, but he’s also allowed an alarming rate of hard contact. Remember, Kelly spent the past four years overseas in South Korea's KBO league so MLB hitters were not so familiar with him in the first month. Now that film is out and MLB hitters have adjusted, he’s getting torched again and shell-shock is not far off. Look for the Braves to put up something crooked in this hitter-friendly venue.

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