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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.  

7:45 PM EST. The Cardinals cannot be a dog in this spot against the Phillies and the only reason they are is because Aaron Nola (RHP - PHI) has much more market credibility than Dakota Hudson (RHP - ST. L). Nola has certainly earned his credibility but his expectations coming into the year were sky-high and he’s not delivered the goods so far. Nola is seven starts into the season and has not been able to throw a beauty yet, instead he’s thrown a bunch of average games. He has definitely been unlucky, with a 35% hit rate and 21% hr/f, however his skills have also been well below his standard (4.14 xERA). Last season, he held left-handed batters to a .187 BA and .559 OPS, while this season they have a .350 BA and .993 OPS against him. He’ll now face a Cardinals’ squad that is 13-4 at home.

24-year-old Dakota Hudson showed enough in a bullpen role last year with St. Louis, and then striking out 20 of the 85 batters faced in spring training while only walking six of them, that he was named the fifth starter for the Cardinals. Hudson is a 6'4", 185-pound right-hander who has had decent success as a starter in the minors. He doesn't get the big strikeout numbers, relying more on inducing weak contact. His mid-90s heater is plus, with a late sink. His slider and curve are both average, and he is working on improving his change-up. Hudson is 2-2 after six starts covering 30 innings with an ERA of 4.80. Dakota’s power sinker/curve combo gets plenty of grounders, but poor command (15 BB’s in 30 innings) shows he still needs work. Truth is, Hudson owns an intriguing profile and if he can get command of the plate, he’s going to be a beast. His first-pitch strike rate is trending the right way and his swing and miss rate is starting to thrive too. Hudson’s 4.80 surface ERA will stick out to some and induce some fades but we see it as a great buy-low opportunity because his skills otherwise are tremendous.

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