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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.  

8:05 PM EST. Jon Lester (LHP - CHC) began the season with two rather shaky starts against Texas and then Atlanta. He then spent some time on the injured list, but has returned with quality starts in each of his last two starts. Beware of falling for his surface stats, as he is riding the combination of a 24% hit rate and an incredibly lucky 96% LOB (left-on-base) rate to his 1.73 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Lester is throwing strikes at a high rate but his 8% swing and miss rate does not support the 27 K’s in 26 frames. What’s happening is that hitters are allowing Lester to get ahead in the count rather than going up there and being aggressive. Hitters will make that adjustment and then Lester’s surface stats will regress. Jon Lester is very hittable and while he may indeed dominate or hold the offensively challenged Marlins to very little, we still have to attack him when he’s favored in this range. We also have a legit starter on our side.

Caleb Smith (LHP - MIA) has a fraction of the market presence that Lester has and we are the beneficiaries of such great value here because of it. Smith is flashing skills that will get noticed real soon. Over his last four starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 30/6 K/BB in 25 innings. That recent form is backed up by a flourishing skill set (2.99 xERA, 11.3 K’s/9, 17% swing and miss rate and outstanding control. Smith has 37 K’s in his last 31 innings with a 23% swing and miss rate. Price dictates the play.

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