Washington @ PHILADELPHIA
Washington +108 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +108 BET 365 +100 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +100

Posted at 11:35 AM EST

7:10 PM EST. We could gush over Patrick Corbin all day, but we'll save the praise for another time. Just know that Corbin has looked great in his new digs after beginning his career as a National with five straight quality starts. Even with a less than stellar outing in his last appearance, Corbin sports a very nice xERA of 3.72, which actually backs up his surface number (3.58). Corbin is mowing hitters down at a high clip with his 10.51 K/9 and we cannot justify why he is a pooch here despite pitching on the road. However, that's what happens when you face a team that has high expectations led by a name brand pitcher.

Our attack on Jake Arrieta will continue, as we saw nothing in his start against Miami that would deter us here today. That outing was the veteran's worst start of the season, as he gave up five runs on nine hits over five innings to the team with the fewest wins in the majors. As a former Cy Young Award winner, Arrieta still has market appeal, but he no longer has the skill to back up that reputation. The Nationals have also been a bad matchup for him. In 13 career starts against the Nats, Arrieta has an ERA of 5.26, which is his second worst number against a National League squad. Arrieta has issued 34 free passes in his 65 innings pitched against Washington. So far this season, Arrieta is sporting an xERA that is more than a point higher than his surface number. We've already seen a correction to many of the troubling areas in Arrieta games that we've highlighted before (BABP, strand rate, and ERA) and so the bloom is already coming off his rose. Arrieta's luck has run out and now it's time to cash in.

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Our Pick

Washington +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110