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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.  

6:40 PM EST. The Mariners cannot be a pooch at home with five-game winner Marco Gonzales (LHP - SEA) taking the bump. After struggling through injuries for years, the 27-year-old is finally healthy and living up to his high billing. Gonzales has allowed less than three runs in four of his last five starts. He leads the M's in strikeout with 34 Ks in 45 innings. Nothing about Gonzales in truly 'elite,' but he doesn't walk batters. Last season, of the 78 pitchers with at least 150 innings, the former All-American finished sixth with a 1.7 BB/9. This season, he's right in line at 1.8. Gonzales is solid, which is more than we can say about his competition tonight.

We will continue our attack on Jon Lester (LHP - CHC) tonight without hesitation, as the veteran is on the decline, which means there is money to be made. The lefty hurler made his last start, which was a loss at home to the Dodgers on April 25. That appearance came after a 17-day layoff and a trip to the 10-day injured list with a hamstring strain. On the surface, Lester's numbers that day look pretty good, as he allowed just one earned run over five innings and added five punchouts. What you don't see on that stat line is that it was chilly and the wind was blowing in hard at Wrigley, as the 2-1 final would indicate. Lester has benefited mostly from an unsustainable 95.7% strand percentage, but he still has trouble inducing grounders and his swinging strike rate is just 9.2%. The erosion of Lester's skills is not a new phenomenon, but as long as he's still got market appeal, he makes for a great fade.

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