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Posted at 3:15 PM EST.  

7:05 PM EST. The Tigers look more like something out of "The Walking Dead" than a big league club with six players on the injured list, but some relief could be on the way as shortstop Jordy Mercer will be activated tonight. A fresh face could be a well-needed boost for a team that has dropped four straight. Spencer Turnbull (RHP- DET) was not scheduled to start this game, but we're damn glad he is after the Tigers placed Tyson Ross on the paternity list this afternoon. Turnbull is such an upgrade on the mound that it's not even funny. Turnbull has made five starts so far this season, but he is coming off his best performance of the year after pitching five scoreless innings and picking up the win over the Red Sox. We also backed Turnbull in his prior start against the Pirates and while the P's won that game in extras, Turnbull was solid as well. His bloated BABIP of .400 before his start against Pittsburgh has now dropped to .300, which suggests to us that his luck is changing. Turnbull is pitching well and very much worth a look here against Philadelphia.

The Phillies have won three straight games, but they are walking a thin line at the plate after posting just 3.8 runs per game and a collective .288 average over their last 12 contests. With little margin for error, it seems fitting that Vince Velasquez (RHP - PHI) will take the bump today, as his 96% strand rate is the highest posted number on the board today. What's even more troublesome is that Velasquez is relying way too much on his defense and some luck to bail him out as his .228 average on batted balls in play would indicate. Velasquez's career average in that category is .311, so some regression is likely coming in that department. The 26-year-old also sports an appealing 1.99 ERA, but his xERA is an inflated 4.22. That by itself is a serviceable number, as the league average in surface ERA is 4.37, but you are paying for the numbers you can see, not the ones you have to dig for. This is a steep premium to pay for a pitcher that has a low ground ball rate (37.9%) and has seen a full point decrease in his strikeout rate over last season. Velasquez is priced like he's an ace, which could not be further from the truth. 

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