Tampa Bay @ KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY +134 over Tampa Bay

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +134 BET 365 +130 SportsInteraction +130 5DIMES +130

Posted at 2:35 PM EST.  

8:15 PM EST. The Rays will deploy "opener" Ryne Stanek (RHP - TAM) to start this game and it is expected that he will give way to Yonny Chirinos after the first few outs. While Stanek has a tidy 1.32 ERA on the surface, his xERA is a bloated 4.52. His time will be limited, but that doesn't mean the Royals can't get to him. Meanwhile, Chirinos was initially scheduled to start this game, but he was pulled yesterday. In his last appearance, which was a traditional start against these Royals last Monday, Chirinos pitched six ho-hum innings and gave up three home runs to just three punch-outs. Like Stanek, Chirinos has an xERA higher than his surface number. He also sports a low groundball rate of just 34.3%. For some perspective, the best pitcher in that category going today is Oakland's Frankie Montas, who posts a 57.8%. The Rays will face Brad Keller (RHP - KAN), whose ground ball rate is 49%.

Keller was a Rule 5 pick for Kansas City, but he had a very solid 2018 after bringing his heavy ground ball tendencies to the Royals. Keller features a gopher bashing sinker that makes up for his relative lack of strikeouts, but his 7.05 K/9 rate this season is a near one point improvement over last year. Keller has finished serving his five-game suspension for hitting Tim Anderson of the White Sox and inciting a brawl. Up until that seventh inning skirmish, Keller had been pitching well and his manager Ned Yost had taken notice, "He was limiting his mistakes the first six innings, and his pitch count (85) was in great shape." In the end, the ruckus did not cost Keller much, as his start was pushed back just a day. The Royals played the Rays in Tampa last week and they put an end to a 10 game run of losses to the Rays with a 10-2 drubbing in the series closer last Wednesday afternoon. No matter what happens here, we know the Rays are inflated based on their early-season success and we are getting an excellent price on the better pitcher. Keller has been called "Keuchel 2.0", which is high praise. Buy now before word gets out.

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Our Pick

KANSAS CITY +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110