Miami @ PHILADELPHIA
Miami +153 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +153 BET 365 +150 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +150

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.  

1:05 PM EST. Pablo Lopez (RHP - MIA) threw six plus shutout innings with six strikeouts at Cleveland for a pure quality start on April 23. His 13% swing & miss rate says he can provide strikeouts versus a Phillies lineup that is an average offense vs. RHP. His 2.4 career BB’s/9 vouches for his WHIP rating, and his 3.25 xERA back his early skills growth. Pablo Lopez has a BB/K split of 5/29 over 26 innings with a 51% groundball-rate. He’s close to being an ace but he’s priced like he’s Barry Zito.

Zach Eflin (RHP - PHI) will try to end his three-straight disaster streak with an outing vs. Miami's bottom-five lineup vs. RHP. His 10% swing & miss rate and strong strikeout rating against Miami's 29% K% (highest in the majors) could lead to a decent strikeout total. Eflin is good. He was one of the best starters in PHI camp this spring (18/5 K/BB in 20 IP) and his first two starts of the season were excellent (14/1 K/BB in 12 IP). However, the Marlins got to him for 10 hits in 4 innings back in Miami and this park is easier to bang out hits in. A very good outing by Eflin is possible but the price on our guy is too good to pass up on.

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Our Pick

Miami +153 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.06)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas