Baltimore @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA -1½ +107 over Baltimore

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +107 BET 365 -1½ +100 SportsInteraction -1½ +100 5DIMES- 1½ +103

Posted at 10:20 AM EST

8:10 PM EST. The velocity increase that Martin Perez (LHP - MIN) showcased in spring training has carried over to the regular season, as his current 94.6 mph average is the highest of his career, and so is his 8.4 K’s/9 and 12% swing and miss rate. Perez has been hurt by walks (5.3 BB’s/9) in the early going, but his 66% first-pitch strike rate suggests he can turn that around in a big way.  Martin Perez’s early stats are bad but his underlying skills say that 5.31 ERA is in line for a correction to the good.

Alex Cobb has started two games this year. He lasted 5.2 innings in one start and 2.2 in the next. Those 2.2 innings just happened to be against the Twins in which Cobb was batting practice out there. In 2.2 frames, Cobb was tagged for 10 hits and nine earned runs while giving up three jacks. Cobb’s 2017 xERA foretold of an ERA downturn, while underlying skills stayed stagnant, putting 2013-14 peak further into rear view. Cobb hasn’t produced a positive ROI since 2013. Pitiful skills and rising xERA trend say that he should be handled only with a hazmat suit. No reason not to play the Twinkies at home here.

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Our Pick

MINNESOTA -1½ +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

Detroit +103 over Tampa Bay
Seattle +107 over Texas