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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.  

2:20 PM EST. Jon Lester (LHP - CHC) comes off the 10-day injured list with left hamstring tightness to make his fourth start of the season. Now in his 14th year and approaching 2500 career innings, Lester’s surface numbers from last year and this year look pretty on paper but underneath the surface it’s a continuation of his decline. Lester struggles to generate both grounders (36%) and swinging strikes (9%), while career-long dominance vL came to a screeching halt. It’s tough to get excited about the 35-year-old Lester. Among qualified starters, his K-BB% is the 11th lowest and has been on a four-year decline (19.4% to 19.3% to 18.2% to 15.7% to 11.2%).

Recency bias may be strong with him right now, as he is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA after three starts. It’s all smoke and mirrors, as his strand rate is 100% this year. The only runs that he’s allowed this year have come via the home-run and in that regard, Lester has been taken deep three times in 14 innings.  Lester’s core skills have been trending down for years, but some luck has kept up his value. Don’t be the sucker holding a ticket on him when the bottom falls completely out. Why gamble on downward trending pitchers when they’re overpriced/overvalued?

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