Atlanta @ CINCINNATI
Atlanta -1½ +123 over CINCINNATI

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +123 BET 365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction -1½ +120 5DIMES- 1½ +120

Posted at 11:10 AM EST

6:40 PM EST. Mike Soroka (RHP - ATL) got called up and started immediately on April 18 against the Diamondbacks. He took the loss, but pitched well in his 2019 debut: 5.0 IP, 6 K, 2 BB and 4 hits. The 6'5", 225-pound right-hander sat mid-90s for the game (96 peak), and showed his fastball, slider and change-up. His fastball and slider are plus pitches already, with the change being just average, but it's a solid four-pitch mix (including two fastball variations) from a 21-year-old, which is one of the reasons Soroka is so highly regarded. He shows good separation on his secondary offerings, his slider and change sitting in the low-to-mid-80s. He didn't put up many innings last year due to a shoulder injury. Now healthy, he was off to a good start in Triple-A Gwinnett where he struck out 10 of the 33 batters he faced in two games, with only one walk. That great command means he doesn't walk many while maintaining a strong strikeout rate. We are buyers on Soroka.

We are big time sellers on Tanner Roark (RHP - CIN). Roark and his fly-ball stuff don’t present a good matchup against the Braves. Roark has bigger issues than most RHPs when facing lefty bat and Atlanta brings those LHBs in spades. Current Atlanta bats own a fine .293/.361/.500 line against Roark, who has been yielding quite a bit of barreled-up contact through his early-season starts. Tanner Roark has a horrible 32%/33%/35% ground-ball/line-drive/fly-ball split. His swing and miss rate is 7%. Somehow and with a whole lot of luck, he has stranded 83% of baserunners he’s allowed and that charmed life is inevitably coming crashing down. The Braves are ready to go off and so Roark becomes the perfect fade target.

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Our Pick

Atlanta -1½ +123 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.46)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110