BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +186 BET 365 -1½ +175 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES- 1½ +185

Posted at 2:40 PM EST

7:10 PM EST. One could definitely spot -111 to -115 with the Mets, as there is value in underpriced favorites too but we’ll go by the way of the run-line and hope that Jake Arrieta’s (RHP- PHI) weak skills finally catch up to him. Weak skills might actually be understating it. If reliability to show up every fifth day was a skill, perhaps we’d have a different position but but it’s not. Unsavory trends in xERA, strikeout rates, command and swing and miss rate cannot and should not be ignored. Arrieta’s 2.25 ERA after four starts covering 28 innings is all smoke and mirrors that will inevitably blow up. The proof:

18 K’s in 28 innings with a 7% swing and miss rate.

12 walks in 28 innings.

A fortunate .213 BABIP

A fortunate 86% strand rate

Finally, Jake Arrieta has somehow been able to walk into a thunderstorm without getting wet but his xERA of 5.07 is one one of the worst xERA’s in the league among all qualified starters and his luck will 100% guaranteed run out. Let’s hope that it begins right here.   

We could tell you all about Steven Matz (LHP - NYM) but it’s not necessary, as Matz just happens to be the starter today that is going up against our fade target.

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