Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:45 AM EST
8:05 PM EST. Trevor Cahill (RHP - LAA) made his first start of the year against the Mariners and went six full. In two starts since, he has gone six full in both. Cahill has walked two batters over 18 innings while striking out 16. He comes in with an ERA/xERA of 3.50/4.02 and we’ll give him a good reliability grade. Cahill won’t dominate but what he’ll do far more often that not is give his team a chance to win. Cahill started fast in 2018 before missing another five weeks with elbow woes and crashing in the 2H (4.55 ERA) but overall he tossed a four-year-high of 110 innings with a 3.76/3.67 ERA/xERA ball with a 12% swing and miss rate and 53% groundball rate. He hit the free-agency market and signed a one-year, $9 million deal with the Angels. We point that out because teams like the Halos don’t take a nine-million dollar flyer. Cahill is good when he’s healthy and right now he’s healthy. Incidentally, Mike Trout is still out (he’s questionable for tonight) but that’s not going to prevent us from attacking the Rangers starter.
Shelby Miller’s (RHP - TEX) return from Tommy John surgery didn't quite go as planned, as he made just four starts last year with awful results before suffering another setback with elbow troubles. Everything about Miller is unsettling. In that aforementioned fourth start last year, Miller barely made it out of the first inning before being whisked back to Phoenix for further evaluation. He’s made two starts this year and has walked eight batters in six innings while striking out just three. In his two starts this year, he has a 5% swing and miss rate and a 3.18 WHIP. Miller is just 28-years old and was a former 1st round pick but some guys just don’t have what it takes to succeed at this level. He’s playing for his fourth team already, as St. Louis, Atlanta and Arizona didn’t want to invest anymore money in Miller to find out if he’s finally going to come around. The Halos saw him once already this year, back at the Big A, and they knocked him out in the second inning. In his last start, Shelby didn’t make it out of the third inning. Dude can’t throw strikes and can’t get guys to miss when he does. At this extreme hitter’s park, we’ll take our chances that Miller blows up again.
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L.A. Angels -1½ +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)