Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:45 AM EST
8:10 PM EST. We don’t like Heath Fillmyer (RHP- KC) and it would not surprise us one bit if he didn’t last three innings here but that’s not of any concern. We’re going after value and in that regard, we highly doubt that this game will be decided by one run. We’re also suggesting that Chicago’s starter, Earvin Santana (RHP) might not last three innings either. The point is that this game is a toss-up between two weak teams and two garbage pitchers in a hitters park so with that in mind, we’ll roll the dice that of the two teams, the underdog will come out on top by more than one run. If the South Side was taking back the bugger price when spotting 1½-runs, we would be betting them.
As for the starters, well, there’s not a lot of goods things to say. Fillmyer went 4-2 with a 4.26 ERA in 82 innings for the Royals last year. He appeared in 17 games overall with 13 of those coming as starter. It was a somewhat bumpy MLB debut for the converted SS, whose pinpoint control from 2016 in Double-A slipped farther into the rear view mirror. This year, Fillmyer has made one start and he lasted three innings after walking two and striking out two with a 4% swing and miss rate and 46% groundball rate. One can expect more turbulence given his lack of dominant stuff. A faint hope? He went +7 IP in 4 of 5 September starts last year.
Then of course there is Earvin (No Magic) Santana, who has returned from the grave yet again. Santana went 0-1 with a 8.03 ERA in 25 innings last year for the Twinkies. Off-season finger surgery (in 2018) shelved this prior workhorse until late July. Ongoing grip issues and a velocity plunge fueled five disastrous starts before he called it quits. This past off-season, Santana sat on the free-agent market for nearly four months before signing a minor league contract with the White Sox in late February. Santana and the White Sox are now hoping that off-season plasma rich platelet injections will take. The South Side need bodies to fill in during this current rebuild and Santana fits that bill and he also can pass on his valuable experience to some younger starters. In that sense, the White Sox have nothing to lose. Santana had a rough debut, giving up seven earned runs, seven hits (including three HR), and walking three in 3.1 innings. He had a 4% swing and miss rate, he averaged 89 MPH on his fastball and he had a horrible 29% groundball rate. Now decide which team you want at -1½ runs.
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Kansas City -1½ +200 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.00)