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Cincinnati @ LOS ANGELES
Cincinnati +139 over LOS ANGELES

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +139 BET 365 +135 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +135

Posted at 11:45 AM EST

10:10 PM EST. Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) cannot be priced in this range and therefore he and the undervalued Reds are absolutely a great value play. The Reds are off to a slow 5-9 start but perhaps a trip to California will help warm up their bats. This is a Reds’ team with talent that will heat up at some point. As for Castillo, well, he had a strong finish to his rookie 2017 season, which spawned off-the-charts expectations in 2018 Subsequently last year’s first half was a profound disappointment. However, his velocity was up in the second half, as was his first-pitch strike rate. Now, after three starts, few starters have looked better than Castillo. Luis Castillo has 25 K’s in 20 innings with off-the-charts groundball/line-drive/flyball rates of 57%/11%/31% to go along with an ERA/xERA split of 0.92/2.52 and he’s done that pitching all three games in his extreme hitter-friendly home park. He’ll now pitch at a pitchers park for the first time this year.

We all know why the Dodgers are are priced so high here. One, they’re the Dodgers and two, Clayton Kershaw (LHP - LAD) is back baby! That’s nice but no person on this planet is immune to father time or the wear and tear of an abused arm. Last year, Kershaw missed time with biceps/back injuries in May/June, but flashed vintage value in the second half. His elite first-pitch strike rate backs his pinpoint control, but his velocity waned, and fewer whiffs have cut into a once-pristine dominant starts percentage. This is still an ace-level profile, but recent xERA trends and recent innings pitched volume say he's ceded top starting pitcher status. Kershaw allowed four earned runs (3 HR) with 12 K’s and 2 BB’s over 10.1 innings over two starts during his minor league rehab assignment. It’s unclear what his pitch count will be, but we’d have to assume he’ll be slightly restricted. Furthermore, the Reds offense has been very good against LHP in a very limited sample thus far. Maybe Kershaw and the Dodgers win here and if they do, good for them but this is an overlay to be sure, as we get one of MLB’s best starters at a great and hugely inflated price.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +139 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.78)

 

 

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