Los Angeles @ BOSTON
Los Angeles +155 over BOSTON

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +155 BET 365 +150 SportsInteraction  +150 5DIMES  +155

Posted at 3:45 PM EST

8:05 PM EST. We were going to pass on Game 1 (because we have L.A. in Series) but that price on Kershaw keeps screaming at us and therefore we’ll step in.

 

We were going to call Game 1 of the World Series a matchup of the two best left-handed pitchers of this generation but that might be short-changing Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale. Kershaw debuted in 2008, Sale debuted in 2010, and among all pitchers—left-handed and right-handed—with at least 1,000 innings since 2005 they rank first and second in ERA, ERA+, xERA, WHIP, opponents’ AVG, and opponents’ OPS.

 

They might be the two best starting pitchers of this generation, period. Whether you agree with that or prefer someone else over Sale in the no. 2 spot, here’s the bigger point: This is about as good as World Series pitching matchups get, and the fact that we might get to see an encore presentation later in the series could be something we’re talking about decades from now when they’re both in Cooperstown.

 

Kershaw has never faced the Red Sox. Sale hasn’t faced the Dodgers since 2012, when he was 23 years old in his first season as a starter in the majors. His opponent in that game? Kershaw, who was 24 years old. They both struggled in that June 15, 2012 matchup, combining to allow 10 runs in a pair of no-decisions. Since that day they’ve combined for 192 wins, 3,038 strikeouts, and a 2.52 ERA in 2,593 innings. This has the potential to be something special.

 

Playing by American League rules allows the Dodgers to get Matt Kemp‘s bat into the lineup against a left-hander without weakening the outfield defense. Kemp certainly isn’t on J.D. Martinez‘s level, but he did hit .273/.320/.508 off lefties this season. David Freese also figures to get the platoon start, while the Dodgers will likely choose between Brian Dozier and Enrique Hernandez as the right-handed bat starting at second base. Thanks in part to adding Manny Machado, Freese, and Dozier at midseason the Dodgers able to stack the lineup with righties like few other teams, with only Craig Counsell‘s pitching staff manipulation keeping that from being on full display in the NLCS.

 

Yasmani Grandal started 111 regular-season games and each of the Dodgers’ first five playoff games, but Austin Barnes has gotten the nod behind the plate in five of the last six games. Neither catcher has hit at all—Grandal is 3-for-24 (.125) and Barnes is 2-for-18 (.111)—but the Dodgers clearly don’t think they can trust Grandal defensively at this point. Boston stole the third-most bases in MLB this season and went 5-for-5 on steals in the ALDS versus New York, but attempted just one steal in the ALCS versus Houston. Grandal’s inability to literally catch the ball is why he finds himself on the bench, but both Dodgers catchers struggled to throw out runners, posting caught-stealing rates of 28 and 22 percent, respectively, along with below-average pop times.

 

Christian Vazquez is the Red Sox’s primary catcher, but Sandy Leon caught two-thirds of Sale’s regular-season starts and both of his playoff starts. First baseman Mitch Moreland is healthy enough to start after being limited by a hamstring injury, but Steve Pearce will get the nod over him against a lefty. Given the righty-heavy nature of the Dodgers’ bullpen, Alex Cora should be able to find key spots to use both Moreland and Rafael Devers as lefty bats off the bench. There’s also probably an argument for simply starting Devers over Eduardo Nunez regardless of the pitcher, but Cora seems to disagree.


Injuries/Availability

Both bullpens are as fresh as they’ll ever be. If the ALDS and ALCS usage continues, Cora will look to use Rick Porcello in relief and then push his scheduled start back to Game 4. Knuckleballer Steven Wright could be activated after missing the first two rounds with a knee injury, giving the Red Sox another bullpen option.

Rich Hill, who was an option to start Game 2 but will instead be lined up for Game 4, could also be used out of the bullpen but you would have to go deep in the archives to find a time, if ever, that Kershaw was taking back a price like this. If we’re playing value, Dodgers must be bet.  

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Our Pick

Los Angeles +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)

No Run in First Inning -105