Los Angeles @ MILWAUKEE
Los Angeles -107 over MILWAUKEE

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Posted at 2:15 PM EST

8:35 PM EST. One win away from a return trip to the World Series, the Dodgers will hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu, who was far from dominant but effective enough in Game 2 (4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4K’s ), helping Los Angeles even the NLCS at a game apiece. There’s reason to believe he can deliver a much better outing this time around, as he pitched exceptionally well after coming off the disabled list in mid-August (1.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over his final nine regular season starts) before rewarding the Dodgers with seven shutout innings in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Braves. Los Angeles would gladly take five solid innings from Ryu before turning to a relief crew that’s posted the lowest ERA (1.11) and WHIP (0.96) of any bullpen in baseball this postseason.

In a rematch of Game 2, Ryu will be opposed by fellow southpaw Wade Miley, who started Game 5, issued a five-pitch walk to the left-handed hitting Cody Bellinger, and left the game. Miley was impressive in his “normal” Game 2 start, holding the Dodgers scoreless over 5.2b innings and giving his club some much-needed length following a Game 1 win in which the bullpen was called upon to deliver seven innings. Miley has yet to allow a run through 10.1 innings this postseason but do not mistake him for a sure thing. Miley throws 90 MPH and had a swing and miss rate of 8% during the year. He struck out a mere 50 batters in 81 frames but his 2.57 surface ERA sticks out. We’ll pay more attention to Miley’s 4.83 xERA. He’ll fall apart completely as soon as his high contact rate doesn’t result in balls being hit right at people. Throw in an 80% strand rate and the ultimate disaster awaits Miley as soon as his luck runs its course. He is by far the second best starter in this matchup. Behind Miley is a Milwaukee bullpen that has logged a league-leading 49 innings since the start of the postseason. That will catch up to the Crew also.

Since the Game 6 starting pitching matchup is a repeat of Game 2, it would make sense to expect the same lineups. Technically speaking, the right-handed Jonathan Schoop should be getting the start at second base for the Brewers. But Milwaukee stuck with lefty Travis Shaw in Game 2 and he ended up homering off a southpaw (Alex Wood). By the way, Schoop is 0-for-7 so far in the postseason, so maybe that had something to do with the team’s decision. Orlando Arcia is doing his best to make up for a rough regular season at the plate, as he’s batting .296 in the postseason with three homers and seven runs.

Facing the lefty Miley, the Dodgers will make use of their deep bench to stack as many right-handed hitters as possible. Freese has been an automatic starter versus southpaws throughout the postseason, and his regular season performance this year certainly earned him that role, as he registered a .321/.387/.489 slash line against left-handed pitching. Chris Taylor was somewhat of a disappointment this season, but he’s 7-for-21 with a homer, a triple, and six runs scored through eight postseason contests. Behind the plate, Barnes will get his third straight start over Yasmani Grandal, who is batting .130 (3-for-23) in the postseason. Barnes came through with a key game-tying RBI single in the Dodgers’ Game 5 victory on Wednesday. While one cannot underestimate the Brewers, their run has ended and now they face elimination. The Dodgers simply stack up better from top to bottom and if all things are equal, Wade Miley is not going to save Milwaukee’s season.

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Our Pick

Los Angeles -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110